{"id":1357,"date":"2021-08-16T11:42:12","date_gmt":"2021-08-16T09:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/hordaland\/did-climate-scientists-get-it-wrong\/"},"modified":"2025-03-03T12:04:53","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T11:04:53","slug":"did-climate-scientists-get-it-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/hordaland\/did-climate-scientists-get-it-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"Did climate scientists get it wrong?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t<div class=\"template-post alignfull wp-block-naturvern-hero\">\n\t\t<div class=\"hero__inner\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"hero__inner_blocks\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-post-title\">Did climate scientists get it wrong?<\/h1>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-post-excerpt\"><p class=\"wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt\">A serious reality arrived on our doorstep this summer. <\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-naturvern-byline\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"authors\"><div class=\"t2-byline__author-link\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/hordaland\/ansatte\/gabriel-fliflet\/\">Gabriel Fliflet<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span>&#8211; Styremedlem Naturvernforbundet Hordaland<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t<small class=\"entry-date\">16.08.2021 11:42<\/small><small class=\"entry-date\"> | Sist oppdatert: 03.03.2025 12:04<\/small>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\n\n<ul class=\"t2-link-list has-1-items has-auto-columns wp-block-t2-link-list\">\n\t<li class=\"t2-link-list-item wp-block-t2-link-list-item\">\n\t\t<a\n\t\t\thref=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/hordaland\/har-klimaforskerne-tatt-feil\/\"\n\t\t\tclass=\"t2-link-list-item__link t2-link-list__icon--left\"\n\t\t\taria-describedby=\"link-list-item\"\t\t>\n\t\t\t<span class=\"t2-link-list-item__icon\"><span class=\"t2-link-list-item__icon-box\"><\/span><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" height=\"24\" width=\"24\" class=\"t2-icon t2-icon-arrowforward\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M11.3 19.3c-.2-.2-.3-.4-.3-.7 0-.3.1-.5.3-.7l4.9-4.9H5c-.3 0-.5-.1-.7-.3-.2-.2-.3-.4-.3-.7s.1-.5.3-.7c.2-.2.4-.3.7-.3h11.2l-4.9-4.9c-.2-.2-.3-.4-.3-.7 0-.3.1-.5.3-.7.2-.2.4-.3.7-.3s.5.1.7.3l6.6 6.6c.1.1.2.2.2.3 0 .1.1.3.1.4 0 .1 0 .3-.1.4 0 .1-.1.2-.2.3l-6.6 6.6c-.2.2-.4.3-.7.3s-.5-.1-.7-.3z\"\/><\/svg><\/span>\t\t\t<div class=\"t2-link-list-item__content\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"t2-link-list-item__text\">\n\t\t\t\t\tLes denne artikkelen p\u00e5 norsk\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span id=\"link-list-item\" class=\"t2-link-list-item__description\">Har klimaforskerne tatt feil?<\/span>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/li>\n\t\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p><strong>Many have asked<\/strong> if the climate scientists have got it wrong, when they publish their dire descriptions of what could await us if we don\u2019t drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions. Surely it can\u2019t be as bad as they say? Maybe they\u2019ve made a mistake in the severity?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The question itself isn\u2019t a dumb one, as scientists can make mistakes, and all scientific research is constantly evolving. But this summer\u2019s chaotic weather, with nearly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bt.no\/nyheter\/utenriks\/i\/JEE99m\/forskere-heteboelgen-i-usa-og-canada-umulig-uten-klimaendringer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">50 degrees in both Canada and southern Europe<\/a>, enormous <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nrk.no\/urix\/store-skogbranner-i-sibir-1.15579260\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forest fires in Siberia<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bt.no\/nyheter\/direkte\/i\/lzMAV9\/storflom-i-europa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">floods in central Europe<\/a>, and large scale <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dagbladet.no\/nyheter\/ekspert---det-er-helt-enormt\/74068384\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">glacial melting in Greenland<\/a>, should make us remember this: the chance that scientists have made a mistake in the severity of their predictions can go in both directions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Maybe reality will be even worse than they had predicted? A conservative margin is built into climate research, as researchers are hesitant to incorporate factors which they don\u2019t have solid numbers for yet. The result can be calculations which are overly conservative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A significant effort <\/strong>must transpire to reach the goal of restricting global warming to two degrees above pre-industrial levels, not to even mention the suggested target of 1.5 degrees. In addition, the numbers behind how much we must reduce emissions to reach this goal are built on a disturbingly unambitious threshold: they indicate a 50% chance of success toward the goal. This is a success rate much lower than we would otherwise have deemed acceptable for use in a standard risk evaluation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We would never have built a bridge with a 50% chance of collapse, but we instead accept this failure rate when it concerns all of our futures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The summer is over. <\/strong>Something isn\u2019t right. Climate change paid us a visit a little bit earlier than we predicted, but the climate scientists weren\u2019t as surprised as the rest of us. So far, their predictions have actually been rather spot on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our dreams of consumer growth into to the sky and beyond appears to lead us down into a nightmare. Now we need brave leaders. Now we need politicians that are both visionary and concrete. Norway has abnormally good opportunities to demonstrate the power of actions and to be an inspiring world leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This of course applies to everything we are actively pursuing, such as developing new technologies and implementing socially-equal climate tax systems, but also the damage we avoid doing, such as destroying wetlands, increasing traffic by building new motorways and runways, or searching for more oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Reality knocked<\/strong> on our door this summer. And if it knocks again, you should let the climate and environment decide which party you vote for in a Storting election, if it\u2019s this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>First <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bt.no\/btmeninger\/debatt\/i\/47BvrV\/har-klimaforskerne-tatt-feil\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">published in BT<\/a>, 13.08.2021<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull is-style-green-light is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-heading\" id=\"artikler-fra-naturvest\">Artikler fra NaturVest<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"t2-featured-content-layout alignwide alignwide wp-block-t2-featured-content-layout\">\n<div class=\"t2-featured-query-post t2-featured-content is-post-type-post category-aktuelt category-naturvest wp-block-t2-featured-query-post\"><a class=\"t2-post-link wp-block-t2-post-link\" href=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/hordaland\/tidsmaskinen\/\">\n<figure style=\"--t2-focal-point: 50% 50%;\" class=\"t2-post-featured-image has-image-ratio-4-3 wp-block-t2-post-featured-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" src=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/IMG_3266-scaled.jpg\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/IMG_3266-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/IMG_3266-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/IMG_3266-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/IMG_3266-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/IMG_3266-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/IMG_3266-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/IMG_3266-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n\t<h2 class=\"t2-post-title wp-block-t2-post-title\">Tidsmaskinen<\/h2>\n\t<p class=\"wp-block-naturvern-post-excerpt\">P\u00e5 en lesesal i Oslo ble jeg tatt tilbake til en tid da vern av Hardangervidda var v\u00e5r mest presserende oppgave.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"t2-featured-query-post t2-featured-content is-post-type-post category-aktuelt category-naturvest local-stord wp-block-t2-featured-query-post\"><a class=\"t2-post-link wp-block-t2-post-link\" href=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/hordaland\/ei-utstilling-om-naturen\/\">\n<figure style=\"--t2-focal-point: 50% 50%;\" class=\"t2-post-featured-image has-image-ratio-4-3 wp-block-t2-post-featured-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" src=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/Utstillingen-forste-sted.-Foto-Jan-Rabben-scaled.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/Utstillingen-forste-sted.-Foto-Jan-Rabben-scaled.jpeg 2560w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/Utstillingen-forste-sted.-Foto-Jan-Rabben-300x225.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/Utstillingen-forste-sted.-Foto-Jan-Rabben-1024x768.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/Utstillingen-forste-sted.-Foto-Jan-Rabben-768x576.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/Utstillingen-forste-sted.-Foto-Jan-Rabben-1536x1152.jpeg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n\t<h2 class=\"t2-post-title wp-block-t2-post-title\">Ei utstilling om naturen<\/h2>\n\t<p class=\"wp-block-naturvern-post-excerpt\">Naturvernforbundet p\u00e5 Stord informerer om den s\u00e6reigne naturen i Sunnhordland gjennom utstilling og videosnuttar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"t2-featured-query-post t2-featured-content is-post-type-post category-aktuelt category-forurensning category-miljogifter category-naturvest wp-block-t2-featured-query-post\"><a class=\"t2-post-link wp-block-t2-post-link\" href=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/hordaland\/den-tredje-krisen\/\">\n<figure style=\"--t2-focal-point: 50% 50%;\" class=\"t2-post-featured-image has-image-ratio-4-3 wp-block-t2-post-featured-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1822\" height=\"1007\" src=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/NaturVest-1989-nr-4-forside_Side_01-scaled-e1785833536637.jpg\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/NaturVest-1989-nr-4-forside_Side_01-scaled-e1785833536637.jpg 1822w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/NaturVest-1989-nr-4-forside_Side_01-scaled-e1785833536637-300x166.jpg 300w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/NaturVest-1989-nr-4-forside_Side_01-scaled-e1785833536637-1024x566.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/NaturVest-1989-nr-4-forside_Side_01-scaled-e1785833536637-768x424.jpg 768w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/NaturVest-1989-nr-4-forside_Side_01-scaled-e1785833536637-1536x849.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1822px) 100vw, 1822px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n\t<h2 class=\"t2-post-title wp-block-t2-post-title\">Den tredje krisen<\/h2>\n\t<p class=\"wp-block-naturvern-post-excerpt\">Et problem blir ikke borte bare man feier det under teppet. Eller dekker det med duk, s\u00e5nn som ble gjort med Bergensernes gamle bosshaug i Kollev\u00e5gen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"t2-featured-query-post t2-featured-content is-post-type-post category-aktuelt category-naturvest category-ville-pollinerende-insekter wp-block-t2-featured-query-post\"><a class=\"t2-post-link wp-block-t2-post-link\" href=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/hordaland\/urbane-insekter\/\">\n<figure style=\"--t2-focal-point: 50% 50%;\" class=\"t2-post-featured-image has-image-ratio-4-3 wp-block-t2-post-featured-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1092\" height=\"1352\" src=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/1.png\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/1.png 1092w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/1-242x300.png 242w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/1-827x1024.png 827w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/08\/1-768x951.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1092px) 100vw, 1092px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n\t<h2 class=\"t2-post-title wp-block-t2-post-title\">Urbane insekter<\/h2>\n\t<p class=\"wp-block-naturvern-post-excerpt\">Slik f\u00e5r du insekter i byen til \u00e5 trives i by-hagen din.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"t2-featured-query-post t2-featured-content is-post-type-post category-aktuelt category-klima category-naturvest category-klima-transport local-bergen local-vaksdal wp-block-t2-featured-query-post\"><a class=\"t2-post-link wp-block-t2-post-link\" href=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/hordaland\/tunnelsloseriet\/\">\n<figure style=\"--t2-focal-point: 50% 50%;\" class=\"t2-post-featured-image has-image-ratio-4-3 wp-block-t2-post-featured-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1942\" src=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/07\/Sparegrisen-ill-Mona-M.-Loberg.png\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/07\/Sparegrisen-ill-Mona-M.-Loberg.png 2560w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/07\/Sparegrisen-ill-Mona-M.-Loberg-300x228.png 300w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/07\/Sparegrisen-ill-Mona-M.-Loberg-1024x777.png 1024w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/07\/Sparegrisen-ill-Mona-M.-Loberg-768x583.png 768w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/07\/Sparegrisen-ill-Mona-M.-Loberg-1536x1165.png 1536w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/07\/Sparegrisen-ill-Mona-M.-Loberg-2048x1554.png 2048w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/07\/Sparegrisen-ill-Mona-M.-Loberg-1920x1456.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n\t<h2 class=\"t2-post-title wp-block-t2-post-title\">Tunnelsl\u00f8seriet<\/h2>\n\t<p class=\"wp-block-naturvern-post-excerpt\">Vi m\u00e5 betale en h\u00f8y pris for at hyttefolk skal slippe helgek\u00f8en.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/a>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"t2-featured-query-post t2-featured-content is-post-type-post category-aktuelt category-bybanen category-naturvest category-klima-transport local-bergen wp-block-t2-featured-query-post\"><a class=\"t2-post-link wp-block-t2-post-link\" href=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/hordaland\/bybanen-beveger-fortsatt\/\">\n<figure style=\"--t2-focal-point: 50% 50%;\" class=\"t2-post-featured-image has-image-ratio-4-3 wp-block-t2-post-featured-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1360\" height=\"1470\" src=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2022\/11\/240615661_416237660019290_310354561394403415_n-e1669311737863.jpg\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Bybanemarsj, klima, klima og transport, faggruppe\" srcset=\"https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2022\/11\/240615661_416237660019290_310354561394403415_n-e1669311737863.jpg 1360w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2022\/11\/240615661_416237660019290_310354561394403415_n-e1669311737863-278x300.jpg 278w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2022\/11\/240615661_416237660019290_310354561394403415_n-e1669311737863-947x1024.jpg 947w, https:\/\/naturvernforbundet.no\/content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2022\/11\/240615661_416237660019290_310354561394403415_n-e1669311737863-768x830.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1360px) 100vw, 1360px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n\t<h2 class=\"t2-post-title wp-block-t2-post-title\">Bybanen beveger fortsatt<\/h2>\n\t<p class=\"wp-block-naturvern-post-excerpt\"><br>\u00a0Vi jobber for \u00e5 skape suksesshistorier i flere bydeler.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A serious reality arrived on our doorstep this summer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":185,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"12952,12878,12675,7999,13022,12893","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","t2_featured_media_focal_point":{"x":0.5,"y":0.5},"hide_logo":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50],"local":[],"class_list":["post-1357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-in-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Did climate scientists get 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